The Puddle Ahead
As we enter the year 2000 it is presently fashionable to review the past and predict the future. Consequently I thought I would inflict some ideas on diving in 2050 on the learned reader and ask where and how we may be diving over the next 50 years.
Where?
Coral bleaching and its relationship with Global Warming (whether a man-made or natural variation) has created a heightened sense of awareness that what we have or had may not last for the next generation and that the historical focal points for diving may become a bit blurred. This will lead to a search for more varied dispersed sites.
If we do see sea levels swamp the Maldives, warm water fry the Red Sea and pollution boil the Med, and Americans trample the Caribbean, the Asia-Pacific area may be the best remaining destination on the planet. Particularly, the "virgin" territory of Micronesia and the Pacific. However, these areas are poorly served by transport infrastructure and development may be restricted. I believe this will give rise to the development of large "floatels", similar but larger than those established on the Great Barrier Reef. These floating hotels will provide resort accommodation and facilities, and slowly transit the region. The floatels may also support a series of conventional dive boats which are serviced and supported for access to more remote locations.
The recent launch of "Voyage of the Seas" cruise ship with a passenger capacity of 3800, and crew of 1600 illustrates the present scale at which floating communities could be built. Recent Japanese work on floating runways illustrates how far you can go while the start of construction of the "Residensea" (www.residensea.com), a floating condominium cruise liner, may kick start and set the trend for offshore communities. We can hope that this closer contact with the sea by more people will translate to a greater appreciation of human impact and the beauty and fragility of the marine infrastructure, rather than its destruction.
How?
The basic kit for the scuba diver, the open circuit aqualung ‚ tank, demand valve and buoyancy control - has not changed significantly in function in the last 50 years. While we have had changes in style, stab jackets, wings, twin-sets, etc., the main reason for the longevity of the present setup is a) it works b) it's reliable, c) it's affordable. If we look at each item, the scope for change is I believe relatively small.
Tanks are bulky and heavy so we should change that. Extruded carbon fibre and plastic tanks would be light and strong, but we would still need to carry the weight to keep us down. Would this be in tank mounted pockets, or will we reduce the tank volume to decrease the buoyancy? This infers higher pressures which is a significant advantage these materials will provide. However, the higher the pressure the greater the cost of fills, and the greater the hazard in an accident ‚ free flow at 500 bar anybody? But I think this will be a direction to go, and the reduction in encumbrance under water will be worth it. Anybody diving with a tank over 5L in 50 years time may look passÈ, "If you can pump it they will come".
Demand valves will be demand valves for ever ‚ the technology is so simple there is nothing to change in its basic operation. Undoubtedly the second stage will get smaller, but there are reasonable limits to the size you can reduce to.
Stab jackets may see some modification. Buoyancy control is the first and one of the hardest skills to master, and hence a stab jacket that through a pressure valve assisted in the maintenance of neutral buoyancy may be a bonus ‚ but you would have to override it if you went up or down! It is likely that higher cost for a function that you can develop yourself, and with better control, may not be so attractive.
Suits are likely to see the most significant changes as fabric technology is very fast evolving and the thin super insulated (or heated) suit is within close reach.
Ah, but what about rebreathers my learned reader may enquire. Aren't they the "new thing"? Well of course here they are, and for serious diving this will undoubtedly be the kit to have. However, at present the "Inspiration" rebreather has a fatality rate of approximately 1% (5 in 500 sales) over a period of less than 2 years. It is clear that this technology must become considerably more reliable and more fool-proof if it is to penetrate a wider market. Just because the equipment can dive to 100 m for 2 hours does not mean the diver is safe placing themselves in that environment. Given that there will always be more maintenance needed than on an open circuit; its market dominance is not assured.
For the techie who wants everything, the technology of super-oxygenated fluids (as seen in the "Abyss" film) is already with us and in increasing use with premature babies. However, most of us use diving kit to avoid drowning and the application of such technology to gain depths of 500 m or greater is not attractive to the average diver.
In summary, I believe that when I'm 80 my recreational diving will fall broadly into two parts; open circuit diving for recreational trips from floatels in Asia-Pacific, and closed circuit rebreathers for wrecking in Europe or America. Undoubtedly, I will be proved wrong and Arthur C Clarke's comment that "all highly advanced technologies will appear to us now as magic" may mean that the diver of the future is almost unrecognisable by the present participants.
However, whatever future technology brings us it is clear that diving in the future will be more comfortable, safer, and easier - there would hardly be any point in progress if these goals were not achieved.
Richard Colwill
January 2000